CLV Ledger
Every pick the filter has ever flagged, graded against the sharpest line in the world and never edited. Corrections appear as new annotated rows — the original stays visible. This page is the test of our edge claim, in public.
Forward record — the kill-gate number
Forward record — started 2026-07-10. No graded picks yet. This is the number that decides everything.
First graded picks land within days of flagging; grades post at match start.
Historical provenance — pre-launch era (Apr–Jun 2026): -2.50% across 30 graded picks · view detailshide details
Backfill era (Apr–Jun 2026, pre-filter, early-line snapshots)
-2.50% across 30 graded picks — provenance, not the product's measurement
Honest variance — backfill era
Era ended on a streak of 3 picks behind (−) the close. Worst drawdown: −80.1pp of cumulative CLV (2026-04-21 → 2026-06-19).
Cumulative CLV — equal 1-unit stakes, percentage points
2026-04-21 → 2026-06-19 · dashed = backfill era (graded vs early-line snapshots) · solid = forward record (graded vs the captured near-close). Running sum per 1-unit stake; the headline aggregate above is the per-pick mean.
Backfill era (picks reconstructed from pre-launch tracking, Apr–Jun 2026): -2.50% across 30 graded picks — graded against our early-line snapshots, not true closes, because no closing capture existed yet. Read it as provenance, not as the product's measurement.
Forward record (flagged live on the Edge Board, from 2026-07-10): no graded picks yet — graded against the captured near-close. This is the number the kill-gate watches.
CLV% = flagged odds × vig-removed Pinnacle close probability − 1. If this number sits at or below zero over any rolling 6-month window with n ≥ 100, the edge claim comes off the site. That rule is public and pre-committed.
Nothing here is edited or removed. Positive CLV on small samples is noisy. CLV is a guidepost, not proof any single bet was right.
35 rows · page 1/1
Download full history (CSV)| Pick / match | Our P | Pinnacle close | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Francisco Cerundolo Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo · ATP Queen's Club Championships | 50.9% | matchbook 2.52 | 2.54 / 1.58(early line) | -3.36% | graded |
| 2026-06-15 | Marin Cilic Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic · ATP Queen's Club Championships | 50.9% | betfair_ex_eu 2.20 | 2.25 / 1.71(early line) | -5.00% | graded |
| 2026-06-15 | Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic · ATP Queen's Club Championships | 50.9% | betfair_ex_eu 2.18 | 2.17 / 1.76(early line) | -2.37% | graded |
| 2026-06-15 | Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics · ATP Queen's Club Championships | 50.9% | betfair_ex_eu 2.58 | 2.44 / 1.62(early line) | +2.95% | graded |
| 2026-05-26 | Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton · ATP French Open | 50.1% | best_available 2.48 | 2.64 / 1.55(early line) | -8.26% | graded |
| 2026-05-26 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tirante · ATP French Open | 59.1% | pinnacle 2.10 | 2.10 / 1.83(early line) | -2.21% | graded |
| 2026-05-26 | Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton · ATP French Open | 50.1% | best_available 2.56 | —(—) | — | ungraded |
| 2026-05-25 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tirante · ATP French Open | 59.1% | best_available 2.14 | 2.35 / 1.67(early line) | -11.10% | graded |
| 2026-05-25 | Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana · ATP French Open | 51.8% | winamax_de 2.30 | 2.26 / 1.70(early line) | -1.26% | graded |
| 2026-05-25 | Wu Yibing Wu Yibing vs Marcos Giron · ATP French Open | 50.9% | best_available 2.20 | 2.10 / 1.81(early line) | +1.84% | graded |
| 2026-05-24 | Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils · ATP French Open | 59.1% | coral 2.00 | 2.13 / 1.78(early line) | -8.95% | graded |
| 2026-05-23 | Jaume Munar Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz · ATP French Open | 51.8% | betfair_ex_eu 2.18 | 2.26 / 1.70(early line) | -6.41% | graded |
| 2026-05-23 | Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana · ATP French Open | 51.4% | best_available 2.20 | —(—) | — | ungraded |
| 2026-05-21 | Tommy Paul Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul · ATP Hamburg Open | 53.3% | betanysports 2.20 | 2.32 / 1.68(early line) | -7.60% | graded |
| 2026-05-21 | Felix Gill Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet · ATP French Open | 51.8% | smarkets 2.62 | 2.31 / 1.65(early line) | +9.17% | graded |
| 2026-05-21 | Borna Gojo Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov · ATP French Open | 51.8% | smarkets 2.18 | 2.16 / 1.72(early line) | -3.36% | graded |
| 2026-05-21 | Luciano Darderi Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur · ATP Hamburg Open | 51.8% | best_available 2.16 | 2.02 / 1.88(early line) | +4.12% | graded |
| 2026-05-18 | Aleksandar Kovacevic Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea · ATP Geneva / Lyon | 51.8% | smarkets 2.16 | 2.15 / 1.76(early line) | -2.77% | graded |
| 2026-05-18 | Chris Rodesch Chris Rodesch vs Leandro Riedi · ATP French Open | 50.1% | smarkets 2.04 | 2.13 / 1.76(early line) | -7.70% | graded |
| 2026-05-18 | Bernard Tomic Bernard Tomic vs Moez Echargui · ATP French Open | 51.8% | mybookieag 2.28 | 2.29 / 1.67(early line) | -3.85% | graded |
| 2026-05-17 | Aleksandar Kovacevic Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea · ATP Geneva / Lyon | 51.8% | best_available 2.17 | —(—) | — | ungraded |
| 2026-05-11 | Mariano Navone Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic · ATP Italian Open | 51.8% | betfair_ex_eu 2.30 | 2.26 / 1.70(early line) | -1.26% | graded |
| 2026-05-09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · ATP Italian Open | 53.3% | matchbook 2.42 | 2.34 / 1.66(early line) | +0.43% | graded |
| 2026-05-06 | Sebastian Baez Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik · ATP Italian Open | 51.8% | best_available 2.14 | 2.31 / 1.68(early line) | -9.89% | graded |
| 2026-05-06 | Lorenzo Sonego Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse · ATP Italian Open | 50.1% | betfair_ex_eu 2.56 | 2.45 / 1.61(early line) | +1.52% | graded |
| 2026-05-06 | Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz · ATP Italian Open | 51.8% | betfair_ex_uk 2.28 | 2.24 / 1.72(early line) | -0.97% | graded |
| 2026-05-06 | Dalibor Svrcina Dalibor Svrcina vs Miomir Kecmanovic · ATP Italian Open | 61.7% | matchbook 2.10 | 2.05 / 1.83(early line) | -0.95% | graded |
| 2026-05-05 | Jesper De Jong Jesper De Jong vs Nuno Borges · ATP Italian Open | 50.1% | fanatics 2.05 | 2.12 / 1.78(early line) | -6.44% | graded |
| 2026-05-05 | Hugo Dellien Hugo Dellien vs Jesper De Jong · ATP Italian Open | 50.1% | betfair_ex_uk 2.24 | 2.19 / 1.71(early line) | -1.78% | graded |
| 2026-05-04 | Lorenzo Sonego Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse · ATP Italian Open | 51.8% | best_available 2.30 | —(—) | — | ungraded |
| 2026-05-04 | Patrick Kypson Patrick Kypson vs Titouan Droguet · ATP Italian Open | 51.8% | smarkets 2.50 | 2.44 / 1.58(early line) | -1.74% | graded |
| 2026-04-24 | Learner Tien Learner Tien vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo · ATP Madrid Open | 50.1% | matchbook 2.48 | 2.39 / 1.64(early line) | +0.92% | graded |
| 2026-04-21 | Roberto Bautista Agut Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante · ATP Madrid Open | 50.1% | sport888 2.50 | 2.51 / 1.57(early line) | -3.80% | graded |
| 2026-04-21 | Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon vs Matteo Berrettini · ATP Madrid Open | 59.9% | best_available 2.00 | 1.84 / 2.04(early line) | +5.15% | graded |
| 2026-04-21 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Patrick Kypson vs Nikoloz Basilashvili · ATP Madrid Open | 50.2% | best_available 2.24 | —(—) | — | ungraded |
Close quality is labeled per row: “early line” grades use our last pre-match snapshot, not the true close — shown, never hidden. Ungraded rows had no genuine two-sided Pinnacle close and are excluded from the aggregate rather than defaulted. Not betting or financial advice. 21+ where legal. Methodology.