CLV Ledger
Every pick the filter has ever flagged, graded against the sharpest line in the world and never edited. Corrections appear as new annotated rows — the original stays visible. This page is the test of our edge claim, in public.
Forward record — the kill-gate number
Forward record: 47 picks graded · started 2026-07-10 · every pick graded below, nothing edited.early — n=47
Mean CLV so far: -3.84% graded vs the best captured pre-match line
Close quality: 20 of 47 graded against an early pre-match line — no Pinnacle closing snapshot existed before those matches started. Labeled per row below, never hidden.
Cumulative CLV — equal 1-unit stakes, percentage points
2026-04-21 → 2026-10-21 · dashed = backfill era (graded vs early-line snapshots) · solid = forward record (graded vs the best captured pre-match line, quality labeled per pick). Running sum per 1-unit stake; the headline aggregate above is the per-pick mean.
Historical provenance — pre-launch era (Apr–Jun 2026): -2.50% across 30 graded picks · view detailshide details
Backfill era (Apr–Jun 2026, pre-filter, early-line snapshots)
-2.50% across 30 graded picks — provenance, not the product's measurement
Honest variance — backfill era
Era ended on a streak of 3 picks behind (−) the close. Worst drawdown: −80.1pp of cumulative CLV (2026-04-21 → 2026-06-19).
Backfill era (picks reconstructed from pre-launch tracking, Apr–Jun 2026): -2.50% across 30 graded picks — graded against our early-line snapshots, not true closes, because no closing capture existed yet. Read it as provenance, not as the product's measurement.
Forward record (flagged live on the Edge Board, from 2026-07-10): -3.84% across 47 graded picks — graded against the best captured pre-match Pinnacle line (20 of 47 against an early line, no closing snapshot existed pre-match — labeled per row). This is the number the kill-gate watches.
CLV% = flagged odds × vig-removed Pinnacle close probability − 1. If this number sits at or below zero over any rolling 6-month window with n ≥ 100, the edge claim comes off the site. That rule is public and pre-committed.
Nothing here is edited or removed. Positive CLV on small samples is noisy. CLV is a guidepost, not proof any single bet was right.
82 rows · page 1/2
Download full history (CSV)| Pick / match | Our P | Pinnacle close | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Daniel Altmaier Borna Gojo vs Daniel Altmaier · ATP Lyon, France Men Singles | 54.2% | bet365 2.10 | 2.03 / 1.85(near-close) | +0.04% | graded |
| 2026-10-14 | Casper Ruud Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud · ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles | 53.6% | bet365 1.97 | 2.15 / 1.79(near-close) | -10.58% | graded |
| 2026-10-10 | Alexander Bublik Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima · ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles | 51.1% | bet365 2.20 | 2.06 / 1.86(near-close) | +4.45% | graded |
| 2026-10-08 | Matteo Berrettini Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima · ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles | 53.3% | bet365 2.20 | 2.29 / 1.69(near-close) | -6.61% | graded |
| 2026-10-08 | Yunchaokete Bu Yunchaokete Bu vs Casper Ruud · ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles | 51.9% | bet365 2.20 | 2.07 / 1.83(near-close) | +3.32% | graded |
| 2026-10-01 | Kyrian Jacquet Kyrian Jacquet vs Luciano Darderi · ATP Tokyo, Japan Men Singles | 55.5% | bet365 2.20 | 2.21 / 1.74(near-close) | -3.24% | graded |
| 2026-09-30 | Alexander Bublik Alexander Bublik vs Jakub Mensik · ATP Beijing, China Men Singles | 51.6% | bet365 2.37 | 2.41 / 1.63(near-close) | -4.55% | graded |
| 2026-09-25 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · ATP Chengdu, China Men Singles | 51.1% | bet365 2.37 | 2.32 / 1.66(near-close) | -1.25% | graded |
| 2026-09-23 | Yunchaokete Bu Yunchaokete Bu vs Michael Zheng · ATP Hangzhou, China Men Singles | 54.1% | bet365 2.30 | 2.25 / 1.71(near-close) | -0.71% | graded |
| 2026-09-22 | Tallon Griekspoor Tallon Griekspoor vs Denis Shapovalov · ATP Chengdu, China Men Singles | 51.1% | bet365 2.37 | 2.23 / 1.72(near-close) | +3.17% | graded |
| 2026-09-22 | Aleksandar Vukic Aleksandar Vukic vs Kyrian Jacquet · ATP Hangzhou, China Men Singles | 55.5% | bet365 1.97 | 1.91 / 1.96(near-close) | -0.18% | graded |
| 2026-09-22 | Jaime Faria Jaime Faria vs Terence Atmane · ATP Hangzhou, China Men Singles | 51.6% | bet365 1.97 | 2.24 / 1.71(near-close) | -14.60% | graded |
| 2026-08-31 | Marcos Giron Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse · US Open Men Singles | 51.6% | bet365 2.20 | 2.30 / 1.68(near-close) | -7.14% | graded |
| 2026-08-30 | Yibing Wu Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton · US Open Men Singles | 55.3% | bet365 2.10 | 2.17 / 1.76(early line) | -5.87% | graded |
| 2026-08-29 | Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic vs Denis Shapovalov · US Open Men Singles | 53.3% | bet365 2.10 | 2.20 / 1.74(near-close) | -7.26% | graded |
| 2026-08-27 | Aleksandar Kovacevic Arthur Fery vs Aleksandar Kovacevic · ATP Winston Salem, USA Men Singles | 53.6% | bet365 2.00 | 2.02 / 1.89(early line) | -3.27% | graded |
| 2026-08-26 | Remy Bertola Remy Bertola vs Harry Wendelken · US Open Men Singles | 51.1% | bet365 1.83 | 2.15 / 1.72(early line) | -18.56% | graded |
| 2026-08-25 | Benjamin Bonzi Benjamin Bonzi vs Quentin Halys · ATP Winston Salem, USA Men Singles | 51.1% | bet365 2.38 | 2.43 / 1.61(early line) | -5.49% | graded |
| 2026-08-25 | Mattia Bellucci Mattia Bellucci vs Luciano Darderi · ATP Winston Salem, USA Men Singles | 55.3% | bet365 2.10 | 2.06 / 1.84(early line) | -0.92% | graded |
| 2026-08-25 | James Duckworth James Duckworth vs Mariano Navone · ATP Winston Salem, USA Men Singles | 51.6% | bet365 2.38 | 2.36 / 1.65(near-close) | -2.17% | graded |
| 2026-08-24 | Kilian Feldbausch Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch · US Open Men Singles | 53.6% | bet365 2.10 | 2.05 / 1.79(early line) | -2.20% | graded |
| 2026-08-24 | Andrea Guerrieri Andrea Guerrieri vs August Holmgren · US Open Men Singles | 55.3% | bet365 2.20 | 2.00 / 1.83(early line) | +5.00% | graded |
| 2026-08-24 | Sebastian Gorzny Sebastian Gorzny vs Cruz Hewitt · ATP Winston Salem, USA Men Singles | 56.3% | bet365 2.10 | 1.90 / 1.97(early line) | +6.90% | graded |
| 2026-08-24 | Zhizhen Zhang Zhizhen Zhang vs Rei Sakamoto · US Open Men Singles | 51.1% | bet365 1.83 | 2.16 / 1.71(early line) | -18.90% | graded |
| 2026-08-16 | Flavio Cobolli Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli · ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles | 53.6% | bet365 1.91 | 2.08 / 1.84(early line) | -10.39% | graded |
| 2026-08-15 | Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic vs Flavio Cobolli · ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles | 55.3% | bet365 2.10 | 2.03 / 1.86(early line) | +0.47% | graded |
| 2026-08-14 | Luca Van Assche Yannick Hanfmann vs Luca Van Assche · ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles | 55.5% | bet365 2.10 | 2.05 / 1.85(near-close) | -0.38% | graded |
| 2026-08-14 | Titouan Droguet Titouan Droguet vs Matteo Berrettini · ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles | 53.3% | bet365 2.20 | 2.20 / 1.74(near-close) | -2.84% | graded |
| 2026-08-13 | Rinky Hijikata Rinky Hijikata vs Gael Monfils · ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles | 53.9% | bet365 2.10 | 2.23 / 1.72(near-close) | -8.44% | graded |
| 2026-08-12 | Marco Trungelliti Marco Trungelliti vs Kei Nishikori · ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles | 53.9% | bet365 2.10 | 2.12 / 1.75(near-close) | -5.01% | graded |
| 2026-08-11 | Kei Nishikori Kei Nishikori vs Francisco Comesana · ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles | 53.9% | bet365 2.00 | 2.03 / 1.83(near-close) | -5.18% | graded |
| 2026-08-09 | Daniel Merida Tallon Griekspoor vs Daniel Merida · ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles | 52.9% | bet365 2.00 | 2.07 / 1.85(early line) | -5.69% | graded |
| 2026-08-05 | Arthur Rinderknech Miomir Kecmanovic vs Arthur Rinderknech · ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles | 53.6% | bet365 1.91 | 2.06 / 1.84(near-close) | -9.93% | graded |
| 2026-08-04 | Adam Walton Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby · ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles | 53.3% | bet365 2.10 | 2.15 / 1.77(early line) | -5.03% | graded |
| 2026-08-03 | Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic · ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles | 51.1% | bet365 2.10 | 2.11 / 1.80(near-close) | -3.32% | graded |
| 2026-08-03 | Jaume Munar Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx · ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles | 55.3% | bet365 2.20 | 2.30 / 1.68(near-close) | -7.14% | graded |
| 2026-08-02 | Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic · ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles | 51.6% | bet365 2.10 | 2.25 / 1.71(near-close) | -9.35% | graded |
| 2026-08-02 | Benjamin Bonzi Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann · ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles | 51.6% | bet365 2.10 | 2.13 / 1.77(near-close) | -4.72% | graded |
| 2026-08-02 | Adam Walton Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby · ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles | 53.3% | bet365 2.20 | 2.15 / 1.78(near-close) | -0.36% | graded |
| 2026-08-01 | Nicolas Mejia Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia · ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles | 53.6% | bet365 2.37 | 2.18 / 1.71(early line) | +4.15% | graded |
| 2026-08-01 | Dalibor Svrcina Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet · ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles | 55.5% | bet365 2.00 | 1.91 / 1.93(near-close) | +0.52% | graded |
| 2026-07-19 | Sebastian Baez Sebastian Baez vs Miomir Kecmanovic · ATP Kitzbuhel, Austria Men Singles | 50.1% | bet365 2.10 | 2.15 / 1.76(early line) | -5.56% | graded |
| 2026-07-19 | Botic Van de Zandschulp Botic Van de Zandschulp vs Jaime Faria · ATP Estoril, Portugal Men Singles | 51.8% | bet365 2.20 | 2.08 / 1.81(early line) | +2.46% | graded |
| 2026-07-16 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli · ATP Umag, Croatia Men Singles | 50.2% | bet365 2.20 | 2.27 / 1.70(early line) | -5.83% | graded |
| 2026-07-15 | Luca Van Assche Luca Van Assche vs Titouan Droguet · ATP Umag, Croatia Men Singles | 51.8% | bet365 2.20 | 2.23 / 1.71(early line) | -4.55% | graded |
| 2026-07-14 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse · ATP Gstaad, Switzerland Men Singles | 50.1% | unibet 2.23 | 2.24 / 1.72(early line) | -3.17% | graded |
| 2026-07-14 | Marco Cecchinato Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga · ATP Umag, Croatia Men Singles | 50.1% | bet365 2.20 | 2.15 / 1.77(early line) | -0.69% | graded |
| 2026-06-19 | Francisco Cerundolo Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo · ATP Queen's Club Championships | 50.9% | matchbook 2.52 | 2.54 / 1.58(early line) | -3.36% | graded |
| 2026-06-15 | Marin Cilic Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic · ATP Queen's Club Championships | 50.9% | betfair_ex_eu 2.20 | 2.25 / 1.71(early line) | -5.00% | graded |
| 2026-06-15 | Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic · ATP Queen's Club Championships | 50.9% | betfair_ex_eu 2.18 | 2.17 / 1.76(early line) | -2.37% | graded |
Close quality is labeled per row: “early line” grades use our last pre-match snapshot, not the true close — shown, never hidden. Ungraded rows had no genuine two-sided Pinnacle close and are excluded from the aggregate rather than defaulted. Not betting or financial advice. 21+ where legal. Methodology.