Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys
WTA · US Open Women Singles · Hard2026-09-03 15:00 UTC
Model-favored side: Mirra Andreeva · board of 2026-09-03
The math, in the open
- Our model P (Mirra Andreeva)
- 85.6%
- Pinnacle fair P (vig removed, two-sided)
- —
- Pinnacle raw implied P (Mirra Andreeva)
- —
- Best price implied P (1 ÷ odds)
- —
- Edge (model P − best implied P)
- —
- Books priced
- 0
Vig removal: Pinnacle's two prices imply more than 100% combined; normalizing them out gives the fair line. This row is outside the validated filter (5–12% disagreement, odds 2.0–3.0, ATP) — shown for transparency, not flagged.
What the model is weighing
No factor breakdown is published for this pick. We publish one only when a read-only recompute reproduces the stored probability; when it can't — or the data hasn't been generated yet — we omit the section rather than approximate.
Head-to-head & recent form
No prior meetings in our results database.
Mirra Andreeva: our results table ends 2024-10-14 — too stale to present as current form, so we omit it rather than show it.
Eva Lys: our results table ends 2024-10-14 — too stale to present as current form, so we omit it rather than show it.
Hard Elo: Mirra Andreeva 1752 (n=50) vs Eva Lys 1582 (n=36)
Context is shown for orientation. What the model actually used is the factor list above plus the schedule/context adjustment; a 2–1 head-to-head is an anecdote, not a signal.
The market picture — Mirra Andreeva price by book
No per-book snapshot is stored for this match.
Pinnacle fair P (vig removed): —. Implied P here is raw 1 ÷ odds per book. Only one snapshot per book is stored so far — movement appears after the evening capture.
Analyst read
Written analysis for this match hasn't been published yet.
Sizing, as education: if you act on filter matches at all, professionals size them flat (a fixed ~1% of bankroll) or by fractional Kelly (we model 0.15× Kelly with an uncertainty discount). Never more because a number looks big — a bigger gap above 12% usually means a stale line, not a better bet.
We don't beat Pinnacle — nobody reliably does. We find the books that disagree with it, and we grade every pick against the close, publicly — the receipts, including what we got wrong. Not betting or financial advice. 21+ where legal. About Baseline.