Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino
ATP · ATP Vienna, Austria Men Singles · Hard2026-10-24 16:00 UTC
Model-favored side: Thiago Agustin Tirante · board of 2026-10-24
The math, in the open
- Our model P (Thiago Agustin Tirante)
- 62.1%
- Pinnacle fair P (vig removed, two-sided)
- 60.9%
- Pinnacle raw implied P (Thiago Agustin Tirante)
- 63.5%
- Best price implied P (1 ÷ odds)
- 59.2%
- Edge (model P − best implied P)
- +2.9%
- Books priced
- 2
Vig removal: Pinnacle's two prices imply more than 100% combined; normalizing them out gives the fair line. This row is outside the validated filter (5–12% disagreement, odds 2.0–3.0, ATP) — shown for transparency, not flagged.
What the model is weighing
The model's own per-feature contributions for this matchup (LightGBM TreeSHAP) — the largest inputs first. Each bar shows the factor's pull, toward Thiago Agustin Tirante or toward Adrian Mannarino. These explain the raw model score; the published probability then passes through a per-surface calibration step and a small schedule adjustment, shown beneath.
- Market fair probability 60.9%→ Thiago Agustin Tirante
Pinnacle's two prices with the vig removed — the market's own estimate.
- Surface Elo gap -176→ Adrian Mannarino
Surface-specific Elo blended with overall Elo, difference between the players.
- Market fair probability vs 50/50 +10.9pp→ Thiago Agustin Tirante
- Pinnacle overround (vig) +4.3pp→ Thiago Agustin Tirante
How far Pinnacle's two implied probabilities sum above 100%.
- Ranking gap neutral→ Thiago Agustin Tirante
Not supplied at prediction time — enters at its neutral value.
- Surface experience gap (matches) -429→ Thiago Agustin Tirante
- Raw model P (Thiago Agustin Tirante)
- 65.0%
- After per-surface calibration
- 62.1%
- Schedule/context adjustment
- +0.0%
- Published P (Thiago Agustin Tirante)
- 62.1%
Contributions are in the model's internal units (log-odds); bar lengths are relative within this match. Model v6-stacked. Values marked “neutral” are features the live pipeline doesn't populate — the model sees them at their neutral value, and we show that rather than hide it.
Head-to-head & recent form
No prior meetings in our results database.
Thiago Agustin Tirante: our results table ends 2024-11-18 — too stale to present as current form, so we omit it rather than show it.
Adrian Mannarino: our results table ends 2024-11-04 — too stale to present as current form, so we omit it rather than show it.
Hard Elo: Thiago Agustin Tirante 1472 (n=32) vs Adrian Mannarino 1648 (n=461)
Context is shown for orientation. What the model actually used is the factor list above plus the schedule/context adjustment; a 2–1 head-to-head is an anecdote, not a signal.
The market picture — Thiago Agustin Tirante price by book
| Book | Price | Implied P | Move since first snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnaclefair-line source | 1.57 | 63.5% | — |
| Bet365best price | 1.69 | 59.2% | — |
Pinnacle fair P (vig removed): 60.9%. Implied P here is raw 1 ÷ odds per book. Only one snapshot per book is stored so far — movement appears after the evening capture.
Analyst read
Written analysis for this match hasn't been published yet.
Sizing, as education: if you act on filter matches at all, professionals size them flat (a fixed ~1% of bankroll) or by fractional Kelly (we model 0.15× Kelly with an uncertainty discount). Never more because a number looks big — a bigger gap above 12% usually means a stale line, not a better bet.
We don't beat Pinnacle — nobody reliably does. We find the books that disagree with it, and we grade every pick against the close, publicly — the receipts, including what we got wrong. Not betting or financial advice. 21+ where legal. About Baseline.