Mirra Andreeva vs Karolina Muchova
WTA · WTA Finals Women Singles · Hard2026-11-13 20:00 UTC
Model-favored side: Mirra Andreeva · board of 2026-11-13
The math, in the open
- Our model P (Mirra Andreeva)
- 68.9%
- Pinnacle fair P (vig removed, two-sided)
- 71.0%
- Pinnacle raw implied P (Mirra Andreeva)
- 72.7%
- Best price implied P (1 ÷ odds)
- 73.0%
- Edge (model P − best implied P)
- -4.1%
- Books priced
- 2
Vig removal: Pinnacle's two prices imply more than 100% combined; normalizing them out gives the fair line. This row is outside the validated filter (5–12% disagreement, odds 2.0–3.0, ATP) — shown for transparency, not flagged.
What the model is weighing
The model's own per-feature contributions for this matchup (LightGBM TreeSHAP) — the largest inputs first. Each bar shows the factor's pull, toward Mirra Andreeva or toward Karolina Muchova. These explain the raw model score; the published probability then passes through a per-surface calibration step and a small schedule adjustment, shown beneath.
- Market fair probability 71.0%→ Mirra Andreeva
Pinnacle's two prices with the vig removed — the market's own estimate.
- Market fair probability vs 50/50 +21.0pp→ Mirra Andreeva
- Surface Elo gap +193→ Mirra Andreeva
Surface-specific Elo blended with overall Elo, difference between the players.
- Style data available (player 1) no→ Karolina Muchova
- Break points saved gap -8.7pp→ Karolina Muchova
- First-serve points won gap -5.8pp→ Karolina Muchova
- Raw model P (Mirra Andreeva)
- 66.4%
- After per-surface calibration
- 68.9%
- Schedule/context adjustment
- +0.0%
- Published P (Mirra Andreeva)
- 68.9%
Contributions are in the model's internal units (log-odds); bar lengths are relative within this match. Model v6-stacked. Values marked “neutral” are features the live pipeline doesn't populate — the model sees them at their neutral value, and we show that rather than hide it.
Head-to-head & recent form
No prior meetings in our results database.
Mirra Andreeva: our results table ends 2024-10-14 — too stale to present as current form, so we omit it rather than show it.
Karolina Muchova: our results table ends 2024-10-14 — too stale to present as current form, so we omit it rather than show it.
Hard Elo: Mirra Andreeva 1991 (n=78) vs Karolina Muchova 1798 (n=153)
Context is shown for orientation. What the model actually used is the factor list above plus the schedule/context adjustment; a 2–1 head-to-head is an anecdote, not a signal.
The market picture — Mirra Andreeva price by book
| Book | Price | Implied P | Move since first snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnaclefair-line source | 1.38 | 72.7% | 1.37 → 1.38 |
| Bet365best price | 1.37 | 73.0% | — |
Pinnacle fair P (vig removed): 71.0%. Implied P here is raw 1 ÷ odds per book. Movement compares our first and latest stored snapshots for this match (opening capture each morning; Pinnacle re-captured near the close).
Analyst read
Written analysis for this match hasn't been published yet.
Sizing, as education: if you act on filter matches at all, professionals size them flat (a fixed ~1% of bankroll) or by fractional Kelly (we model 0.15× Kelly with an uncertainty discount). Never more because a number looks big — a bigger gap above 12% usually means a stale line, not a better bet.
We don't beat Pinnacle — nobody reliably does. We find the books that disagree with it, and we grade every pick against the close, publicly — the receipts, including what we got wrong. Not betting or financial advice. 21+ where legal. About Baseline.